===慎独轩===

Anxious Japanese Are Working Themselves to Death

By Ian Rowley

焦虑的日本人正因工作致死

As the recession bites, cases of job-related mental illness and karoshi, or death through overwork, are rising

随着经济危机的加强，因为工作导致精神疾病和过度工作致死的案例在日本明显增加。

With Japan's export-based economy showing signs of recovery, many of the data coming out of Tokyo lately are positive. Most economists expect Japan's gross domestic product, which plunged faster than that of Europe or the U.S. after the collapse of Lehman Brothers last fall, to return to growth during the current quarter, while the Nikkei 225 stock index has increased more than one-third since touching two-decade lows in March.

随着日本出口导向型经济出现复苏的迹象，东京最近公布的很多数据愈加乐观。很多经济学家预测，从去年秋季雷曼兄弟破产以来比欧美更加深陷泥潭的日本经济——尤其是其GDP——可望在第二季度实现恢复性增长。今年3月份日经225指数曾跌落到20年来的最低点，但自那时以来这一指数已强劲增长了超过1/3。

Yet for all the green shoots of recovery, new data released by the Health, Labor & Welfare Ministry on June 8 once again highlight the heavy burden felt by Japan's hard-pressed workers. According to the ministry, for the financial year ended March 2009, a record number of workers suffering from job-induced mental disorders successfully filed for compensation. In total, 269 out of 927 applicants won compensation, up one from the previous year. Among them, 66 had attempted suicide, the second-highest number on record. Grimmer still, the deaths of 158 workers were attributed to karoshi—the Japanese word for working to death—a rise of 16 from a year earlier.

然而，在经济复苏的乐观之余，厚生省在6月8日公布的数据再次凸显了日本社会中被负担所折磨的劳动力大军承担着的沉重压力。在截至2009年3月的过去的这一财年里，因工作导致精神失调而申请体恤金的人数再创新高。927个申请者中，269人获得了补偿金，比去年增加了一人。在获资助的人中，有66人曾经尝试自杀，这一数字达到有史以来的第二高。另外，有158人因过劳死去世，比一年前的数字增加了16人。

The problem is probably much worse, according to experts who say most instances of extreme workplace stress go unreported. "There are many cases where people give up claims," says Hiroshi Kawahito, a lawyer who specializes in cases of death through overwork. Meanwhile, it's likely that many more of the 30,000 cases of suicide in Japan each year are at least in some way related to a culture of excessive working.

根据专家们的说法，大多数的过度工作压力案例并未报告，所以问题可能比上述的情况更为严重。专业从事过劳死申诉案例的Hiroshi Kawahito律师说，其实有很多案例，人们常常放弃申诉选择默然承受。类似的，可能——至少一定程度上——过度工作的日本式职场文化，导致每年超过2万例的自杀事件。

SUBSTANTIAL UNEMPLOYMENT

大量的失业现状

A further concern is that the figures don't take a full account of the current downturn. While Japan's economic plunge started in earnest after the "Lehman shock" in September, it wasn't until the end of the year that many companies began laying off workers in substantial numbers. Even as the economic outlook improves, few believe the unemployment rate, which hit 5% for the first time in 5½ years in May, has peaked.

人们还在担心，由于经济影响和统计数字的滞后性，数字并未全部反映当下局势的严重性。去年，日本经济真正陷入衰退是在9月“雷曼震荡”之后，但直到年底才有很多公司开始大批量裁员。现在，尽管经济前景的预期更加乐观化，但在过去去年半内首次达到5%的失业率，并无达到顶峰的迹象。

Despite some genuine efforts by some companies to improve conditions, it's hard to see the lot of workers easing soon. For sure, there are some positive developments. Toyota (TM), for example, now generally limits overtime to 360 hours a year (an average of 30 hours monthly), and at some offices it makes public address announcements every hour after 7 p.m. pointing out the importance of rest and urging workers to go home. What's more, one feature of the recession is that companies, unwilling to pay overtime, are encouraging workers to leave on time and take longer vacations. During the recent Golden Week holidays in May, for instance, many manufacturers closed plants for longer than usual, encouraging people to take holidays.

 

尽管很多公司在改善员工工作氛围方面用心良苦，但短期内仍然很难看到惠及大量员工的效果显现。丰田公司出台了一些积极有力的措施，比如限定年度加班时间不得超过360小时，即每月平均加班须小于30小时；晚上7点后每小时都在办公室广播，提醒员工休息的重要性，并督促员工下班回家。而且，受制于当下经济衰退的影响，大多公司不愿支付加班费，都在鼓励员工按时下班、多休假。比如最近五月份的黄金周里，很多工厂放假时间增加，鼓励员工享受更长的假期。

Still, the recession also creates new problems for workers. At companies that have laid off employees, many are now doing the jobs of former colleagues in addition to their existing duties. Others, fearing for their jobs, will stay long into the evening for fear of looking expendable. "There may be some companies which let the employees leave early, but they are not among the mainstream of Japanese work sites," adds Kawahito.

A further factor is the impact of what Japanese media call the "wage-down shock"—cuts to worker salaries to offset slumping profits, adding the pressures of financial worries to job insecurity and an excessive workload. While the figures vary from one company to another, many manufacturing workers have taken wage cuts. They've also suffered sharply reduced bonuses, which are a large proportion of pay at many Japanese manufacturers. Meanwhile, enforced holidays, such as those during Golden Week, often include workers using paid vacation or receiving significantly less than their normal daily wage. At recession-hit parts maker Denso, for instance, one worker grumbles that overtime cuts and furloughs have cost some employees $1,000 a month out of pocket. "The mood has become somber," he says.

CULTURE OF HARD WORK

奋力工作的职场文化

For all that, it will take more than an improved economy to alleviate the underlying reasons for Japan's growing army of stressed workers. Many attribute Japan's high suicide rate—which topped 30,000 in 2008 for the 11th consecutive year, more than double the U.S. rate—and increasing number of mental illnesses among workers to restructuring carried out during Japan's "lost decade" in the 1990s. But as the economy recovered, and grew steadily between 2001 and 2007, leaner companies put more pressure on workers, while wages failed to keep pace with rising corporate profits.

For sure, the culture of hard work, even when it risks worker health, runs deep. One government survey found that nearly 90% of workers say they didn't even know what the term work-life balance meant. And 4 out of 5 say they would cancel a date if asked by a superior to work overtime, according to a poll by the Japan Productivity Center for Social-Economic Development, a Tokyo think tank.

Analysts say young people facing an uncertain economic future feel compelled to work longer and longer hours, even if it puts their health at risk. Ominously, Shigeki Matsuda, senior director at the Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute in Tokyo, even links those fears to another one of Japan's problems: its low birthrate. "Uncertainty over the economy and employment has lowered people's motivation for marriage and having children more than expected," he says.

      很久没有这样心思宁静，很久没有这样乐享生活。

      感谢西方的人们，创造出那么多也许我们理解不了其根本意义、历史由来，但却给我们很多意外的体验、感受和快乐的节日，比如圣诞节、复活节、母亲节、父亲节，等等。

      一早醒来，先是按照母亲的吩咐给父亲发节日的祝福短信。如果按照我向来的风格，那就是电话直接打过去，说几句不着边际的话，之后就算节日祝福过了。呵呵，只好由着他们。现下越来越体会到代沟。一如自己和八零后的妹妹之间观念的差别，我和父母之间总是有很多东西不会统一，最为明显的差别可能就是表达自我的方式。

      午后天热，一沓糊涂的热。开了空调准备小睡一下，结果闹钟被太太偷偷取消，小睡一下变成大睡一场。若干年没有这样爽快地睡过了，以至于我晚饭时我开始反思自己这些年到底在忙乎啥，搞得好像自己欠很多觉似的。

      晚间到超市购物，女儿因为买到一根小小的碎碎冰棒冰，开心得不得了。小孩子就是好玩，心思单纯到极点，一点点小事就能占全了她的心。我怕自己是永远难以找回这样的感觉和境界了。

 

      管理不是件容易的事。

 

      无论是管理国家，维护企业，还是经营家庭。

 

      昨天五月份国家运行数据公布。最近发现数据这个东西很有意思，无论是企业的还是国家的，在各种人为因素之下，数据总是让人迷惑的。在二季度中的数据里我继续感到迷惑，但是于经济的具体情况，却不太关心了。毕竟无论怎样，我们都要继续；宏观形势固然会影响我们的战略决断，但是决断总是可以调整的。

 

      我们注定了只能在形势不明的境况下做判断。永远如此。

 

      和国家情形一样，我所在的企业同样遭遇类似的迷局，在貌似红火的生产中遇到费用升高和利润缩减，而且从报表的数据结构里我看不到原因所系，因为数据和我所知所料之间相差太远。

 

      我们似乎也注定了难以在单纯的数字中看到什么实质性的决定力量。常常如此。

 

      在杭州十一年之后，尤其是有了小孩儿、父母过来帮着带之后，好几件事情促使我开始改变以往的观念，考虑家的形式意义和心理意义。我本来以为，心安处即是家；但我后来发现，并不是所有的人都这样想。

 

      从去年这个时间被太太拉着看房开始，一年下来遇到太多好或者差的户型、热情或者冷淡的房东、松动或者僵持的价格。当真的考虑有一个房子给家人的心理安定之后，市场行情或者政策导向就开始变得不太重要，毕竟市场行情和政策导向从来没能看懂过。

 

      所以，我们迷惑，不是因为外在的真的迷乱与否，而是因为我们没有定力。

 

 

      貌似封锁期终于结束了。

 

      跨越6月4日前后的一周多时间里，我的共享空间怎么都登不上，更何谈更新。

 

      似乎一不小心就被列入了重点防范对象。丫的，老子像是仇视政府和共党的人么？像咱这样，如此儒雅帅气的人，怎么会被人认为是危险分子呢？世道真是变了。

 

————————恼火的分割线——————

 

      近来发生了很多事。生活总是多变的。

 

      一件是端午节期间，不经意间去了一趟北京，回来三日后竟然遭遇到突然性的发烧。 心略慌，跑到医院，在医生诊为普通感冒之后如实汇报行程，之后被告知验血。结果虚惊一场，还被医生抢白：北京现在也不能就说是疫区啊...

 

      感冒数日至今，第一天高烧，第二天鼻塞，第三天起至今嗓子难受。如我这样曾经健康强壮的人，如今连小小的感冒都无法抵挡。岁数变老，压力变大，身体变差，于很多事开始力不从心。

 

————————平静的分割线——————

 

      但同时，于另外一些事，却开始前所未有的坚定。比如于自身性格的了解，近段日子我开始MSN上挂出“淡定 坚毅 决断 果敢 刁钻 刻薄 自私 匪气”的注释，我希望能够弥补已经自知的缺陷，尤其是在恶的方面——尽管我太太一直觉得我在这方面已经走得太远了。

 

      常常的，受过所谓教育的我，会思考日常的行事：我们行走在世间，究竟应该是坚持纯净善良，还是偶尔去做些恶。这时，被清洗过的头脑常常告诉自己，要与人为善；但实际上，一件件的世事发生和过去，在商业操作或日常生活中，留下的启示常常只有老祖宗传下来的一句话：好人不长寿，坏人活万年。

 

      在世俗的层面上，有着反道德的规律，是我们的教育不曾提倡的。比如说，报应总是不会出现的，或者说，商业里容不下太多的善意。这样的教育固然理想化，却是有问题的。

 

————————可有可无的分割线——————

 

      最近在给女儿联系幼儿园，之后发现更多历史遗留的世间的真实。其一，就是城市教育仍然是和户口、房产挂钩的，于是像我这样的书呆子终于开始反思并理解网上曾经看到的关于外来人口子女教育的文章的内容；其二，就是现在幼儿园的录取和报名远比考大学、考研究生难，当然可能比考公务员要容易，看了几个甲级的报名情况，都在1：3甚至1：5以上。

 

      那次我甚至开始思考，是否有机会开一个蒙氏理念的一贯制学校，从幼儿园托班一直到初中。留此为据，静待未来。

 

      外来人口教育不平等的铁血事实，同样证明着上述的反道德规律，而且在号称培养德智体美劳全面发展的好孩子的教育机会前面，还是很讽刺的遇到所谓的赞助费的事情，同样说明世界到处充满了反讽——一如我们看到，今年的高考命题，恰恰似乎是在要大家意淫培养综合、全面的人才的教育理念的正确与否。

2009年5月29日19：00，摘抄于国航CA1714航班。

从早晨五点天刚亮起奔赴萧山机场，马不停蹄地折腾到夜色降临重新飞杭。这次北京之行时间颇为紧凑。这时候，看着窗外像丘陵一样的云层，我发觉自己不由自主地开始思考“为什么这么大面积的云都漂浮在类似的水平高度”。于是，我开始明白，自己确实累了。

————

我们都曾拥有，孩子的眼。

孩子眼中的世界，简单纯粹。天是蓝的，花是香的，巫婆注定要失败，王子跟公主最后总是幸福相恋。

越长大越孤单。眼睛开始浑浊，笑容里也夹杂着岁月的无奈。大人的世界里有太多灰色空间。

有人说，这是成长所必然要付出的代价。午夜梦回，你有没有开始怀念？

也许你已为人父母，你是否在这个六月，许下诺言，要带孩子去探险？

长大以后，遗忘之前，让我们在这个六月，回到童年。

去吧，去实现，属于六月的诺言。

Strange Doings In Chinese A Shares
Gady Epstein, 05.21.09, 06:00 PM EDT, From Forbes.com

 

 中国的A股充满诡异

This year's surge in the market makes less sense the closer you look.

仔细观察和分析之下，今年中国A股市场的澎湃行情可能并无实际意义。

 

BEIJING - This year's run-up of more than 40% in the Chinese stock market has provided yet more proof that the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges behave in ways that are disconnected from balance sheets, profit and loss, growth prospects--boring financial stuff like that. Reality, in other words.

 

中国股市今年超过40%的增长进一步证明A股一直以来的诡异：上交所和深交所的交易行为与上市公司的资产负债表、盈亏帐目及成长性预测毫无关系——这个财年的这些财务数据看上去一塌糊涂，可股市现实与公司财报全然背离。

 

It is not just that stocks have gone up. There are good explanations for that, regardless of whether you believe it is wise to be in the market now. The government injected huge amounts of money into the general economy; the market had crashed two-thirds from its peak and may have seemed like a tempting bargain bin; there are few other options for investing cash here; many have the feeling, rightly or wrongly, that China is in the early stages of a recovery; and for a populace without legal gambling options, the Chinese stock market is the biggest game going.

 

不仅仅是股市在增长。对于市场变化，总会有各种解释能够说的通，不管你自己认为是否应当继续入市——政府从春节前开始向各行业注入了大量资金；股指已经从最高点跌落了2/3，以至于似乎开始具有投资价值；在大陆想花钱时，其实几乎找不到其他的投资机会；不管对还是错，很多人都觉得中国经济已经提前步入复苏期；对于没有合法赌博机会的中国的普通民众而言，股市不啻为一个刺激的大赌场。

 

All of that makes sense. What doesn't make sense are some of the kinds of stocks that are going up the most. The share prices of many natural-resources producers have skyrocketed, even though some of the companies are taking big losses now, with no sign of improvement in the near future.

 

这些分析(至少听起来)都很有意义。真正无意义的是市场上蹿升最高的那些股票。比如很多资源类公司的股票价格一飞冲天，但其实很多公司当下已经出现了巨大的损失，而且最要命的是近期还看不到任何好转的希望。

 

These are stocks that are not part of the "Chinese domestic demand" story, which, unproven as it may yet be, has driven optimism, in Forbes and elsewhere, about car makers, clothing retailers and other consumer products companies. Resources stocks are also not countercyclical plays, like agricultural and health care companies, that might have looked cheap in last year's bear market. Value investors would normally be expected to be hunting for these kinds of defensive plays.

 

按理说这些股票不属于“中国内需”题材。后者比如汽车制造商、服装零售商及其他消费品公司，收到各方的乐观期待和推荐，尽管它们从未证明自己能够创造出利润增长。资源类股票和农业或者卫生保健类股票类似，很少会反经济周期表现，这使得它们在去年的牛市中看起来很便宜，价值投资者们会搜寻这类股票并开始他们擅长的保守型操作。

 

"That's the usual pattern, but that's not happening," says Jie Gan, associate professor of finance at Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. Gan is a close follower of the mainland stock exchanges and early last year nailed just how low the bear market could go. "People are betting on stocks that are highly dependent on a very speedy economic recovery," she says. "I don't think the current run-up

is that rational."

 

香港理工大学的Jie Gan说，通常情况下会像上述的那样，但是现在并非如此。她投身大陆证券交易研究数年，并在去年成功地预言了熊市的最低点。她认为当下大家都在股市上赌博，赌中国经济已经进入快速复原期。她认为当下的这种股指上升很不理性。

 

(所谓的专家都是这样，就像活在天堂的梦里一样——股市这东西，什么时候理性过吗？)

 

Two loss-making companies Gan cites are Xinjiang Zhundong Petroleum Technology, which has more than quadrupled in share price from its November low, and Yunnan Copper, which has climbed more than 150% since the beginning of the year. Yunnan Copper recently received a tax rebate, and the Xinjiang company has made expansion plans during the downturn, but neither has provided the kind of news that would justify their high valuations.

 

Gan提到了两个亏损的公司，一个是新疆准东石油——现在的股价已经是去年11月份低点时的4倍，另一个是云南铜业——从年初以来股价已经攀升了150%以上。云南铜业刚刚获得了税金抵扣，准油股份也已制定了经济低迷时期的扩张计划，但是没有哪家发布什么有用的公告来证明它们的价值确实像股价估值那么高。

 

A savvy private-fund manager in Shanghai, Lin Rongshi, also singled out Yunnan Copper to Forbes as an overvalued stock, along with other mining and metals companies: "The market demand of China and the rest of the world for resources has been greatly overestimated," Lin says. "When demand suddenly slumped in the financial crisis, the overproduced sectors, which had high entry costs, bore the brunt of the impact. It will take really a very long time for them to recover. And it will be hard.”

 

另一个业内专家，上海一家私募基金的经理Lin Rongshi同样指出，云南铜业的价值已经被高估，而且不仅仅是云南铜业，其他采矿和金属加工类的公司价值都被高估了。他说，中国和世界其他地区对资源的需求远远没有估计的那么高，所以当经济危机来临、需求突然暴跌时，产能过剩的开采和加工环节——它们在原料上耗资巨大——将不得不承接巨大的冲击。Lin认为这些企业需要很长的时间才能恢复元气，“当下和将来于它们都将是艰难时期”。

 

Lin, who detailed for Forbes last year the murky ways market players profit at punters' expense, says there is money to be made now in sectors where the government is pushing consolidation to create big global players, such as the strategically important auto industry.

 

去年曾详述机构投资者抢劫散户资金的黑暗手段的林说，当下能够赚钱的行业是政府在推动合并的行业，比如深具战略重要性的汽车工业，政府正希望通过合并制造出能够参与全球竞争的大企业。

 

The unlisted Guangzhou Automobile is set to take a stake in Hunan Changfeng Motors. And Anhui Province is trying to merge two listed car companies, JAC Motors and Jianghuai Engine, with Chery, the successful, unlisted manufacturer of the QQ.

 

尚未上市的广汽集团(PS：七八年前就打算上市，但未成，现在正择机打算IPO，旗下有汽车、摩托车、客车等众多产品)已着手重组已经上市的湖南长丰汽车，安徽省也正在推动设法将两个上市公司(此处存疑...)与奇瑞汽车合并，后者在民族汽车产业中属于成功的佼佼者，制造了经典的畅销车型QQ，但却一直未上市。

 

Other acquisitions are in the offing. Because China makes it so difficult to get a new listing on the exchanges (and has currently suspended IPOs altogether), strong unlisted companies can buy their way onto the market by acquiring a weak listed company as a shell--a so-called reverse listing.

 

其他的并购机会将不断涌现出来。因为在中国企业在证交所上市如此之难(而且，当下新股IPO被暂停)，实力较强的非上市公司常常通过“借壳”——并购一家实力较弱的上市公司——来“颠倒着”实现上市的目标。

 

“Many unlisted companies are taking advantage of the financial crisis to seek listed shells," Lin says. "Restructuring will spread to every sector. I think some stocks in automobile, agriculture and service industry will have really good performance after restructuring.”

 

Lin表示，许多未上市的公司正借着经济危机的机会搜寻上市公司中合适的“壳”，重组会很快在各个行业中展开，而且估计汽车、农业和服务业的很多股票能够通过重组实现很好的业绩增长。

 

This is not the ideal way to bring companies to public markets, as the Chinese business magazine Caijing recently noted, because it creates a perverse system that pumps up the value of junk companies as targets, rewarding those enterprises and their chief shareholders for failure. But speculating on target companies is one way for investors to try to make a score.

 

当然，这并非将公司推向公众市场的理想路径。中国知名的的商业杂志《财经》也在近期一片文章中提到这一点。这一路径本身就是扭曲的产物，而且进一步扭曲了市场：垃圾公司仅仅因为其上市身份被选作投资的对象，并购或重组之后企业和大股东收获的往往是损失。但是，对于购买股票的普通投资者来说，如果能够猜出目标公司(并通过购买其股票来对其投资)可能会因为重组这一题材而获得短期的额外收益。

 

Of course, to profit from those trades, you have to do a good job of figuring out which weak listed companies are targets for acquisition or government injections of assets. Trading on rumors and inside information of upcoming acquisitions and government interventions is rampant, and is just another indication of how difficult it is to do well as an average retail investor here.

 

要想从这些交易中获利，就必须做好准备评估工作，并从上市公司中的弱者里找出可能获得重组机会或政府资产注入的“靶公司”。听起来凭借谣传和内部消息来进行交易十分疯狂，但却非常普遍，这也说明为什么在大陆股票市场中做一个普通的投资者会如此之难。

 

Gan says that without inside information, it is best to stay out of the mainland market. Her advice, to her students and to readers: "Wait for the next bull market." The time to buy is not now.

 

Gan说如果没有内部消息，最好远离大陆股市。她给她的学生和读者们的建议是：耐心等待下一个牛市来临。

 

现在不是买入的好时机。

     

 

      读书够多的人，都知道要理论联系实际，却很少有人想，那一则是因为理论常常是滞后于实际的，二则是因为理论常常是不完善甚至是错误的，三则是因为实际常常是超越理论之外的——也可以说理论是不够全面的，难以囊括实际的。总之来说，理论——实际上大多是经验——是靠不住的。

 

      我是学自然科学的，而且学得还算挺多，所以常常知道书本上的那些东西，只是用以参考的——他们生龙活虎地从实际中来，但呆在纸上久了，常常就了无生气、无甚用处了。及至后来，看那些社会科学的书，才知道原来更有甚之。

 

      甚之到什么程度呢？比如说经济学，为了研究方便，历史上的智者和大家们建立了几个基本假设——比如市场均衡，比如理性人，等等，并且，以此为基础，建立了经济学的理论大厦，其间不乏以高等数学作为钢筋水泥来加固的动作。但是，实际上呢？在我们生活着的“实际”世界里，市场从来不会均衡，人从生下来到死掉也绝对不会有哪一天能够足够理性。现代经济学科的大厦，就建立在这样软软糊糊、晃晃悠悠的根基上面，有时候想想，那么多的人们，就在这样的框里面，晃来晃去，唇枪舌战，争来争取——你争个啥呢？又能争出个啥呢？

 

      既然理论和实际相差甚远，而我们这些“唯”“科学”的现代人又非常地、令外星人难以置信地相信科学中的理论，所以我们的世界会出问题，那也就很应该而且很活该。这个时候，我们觉得很多事情难以理解，也就只能怪自己了：

 

      我们想当然地以为，政府是为了人民的，其实政府只会为自己，就像我们只会为自己一样；我们还以为孩子都是祖国的花朵，但是不断有人放着满街都是的小姐不找，非要到学校里玩女学生；我们以为富家子弟都是住在别墅里享受生活的，但他们也会飙车出现在闹市区把人撞飞；我们以为非典之后国家就不会说谎了，但是看看半年来国家统计局的数据，我们就会明白，这些人在拿13亿人当白痴；我们还以为...

 

      我们还能以为什么呢？

 

      理论与实际是脱节的，应该的与现实的其实一点关系都没有。

 

 

      昨日从上海回杭，听新闻说，一例H1N1确诊，剩下的自然是追查。

 

      晚间在浙大看昆曲，结束了和太太散步回家，路上太太说听到这消息很后怕，因为前日我们刚接触了所谓的“刚从美国回来的人”——是指当日吃饭的一个朋友。

 

      是的，如果他有问题，那我们就会有问题，一起吃饭的另外一个上海的兄弟也会有问题。

 

      如果我有问题，那昨日上海国际博览中心参加展会的很多人会有问题，整天和我接触的同事会有问题，这两日我还坐过两次公交车，昨晚我还在大大的一个礼堂里看了一场戏，还带女儿和好几个小朋友玩。

 

      所有这些可能的人，他们近几日接触的人们，也会被圈起来。

 

      这个世界远比我们想的要小，这个事情远比我们想的要难控制。

 

 

      昨日晚间和两个外来的朋友一起吃饭，女儿跟其中一家的外国国籍的小朋友玩得很好，以至于分开时对方大哭；今天早晨五点多，女儿睡得迷迷糊糊之际，竟然开始大发脾气，于是索性大家都破天荒地不到六点全部起床，得以拉孩子一起出去跑步；顺路买了油条，女儿竟然问美国人是不是也吃这东西——估计是记着昨晚的玩伴，于是给女儿讲国外食品的单调和Chinese Food的多彩和可口；上午喝茶，发现快喝完的那罐铁观音竟然可以泡十几次而香气犹存，后悔之前一直暴殄天物地浪费；中午被明媚的阳光耀了眼、迷了神，大睡了二十分钟，之后听妈妈讲老家的人情世故——乡里乡情或者兄弟妯娌之间的冲突等等，五十多岁的老人也会于一些小事耿耿于怀，让人不禁莞尔——不管怎样，今天老妈说什么都是对的，太太下午休怎么睡都不过头，母亲节嘛...

 

      固然，就像张五常之类所主张的，在这次前所未有的经济危机中，中国和风暴中心的美国的最大的区别，就在于中国没有所谓的“毒”资产，我们没有那种如同多米诺骨牌一样的放大的连锁效应。

 

      但是，在一系列表面向好、互有矛盾的经济数据之下，我们的经济是否真的回暖了？

 

      局势依旧扑朔迷离。

 

      真相不会很快揭晓。

 

      依然相信，身处产业中的人们，尽管少有机会看清大局，却是实实在在感受风向变化的。从去年5、6月份山东和广东的外资撤逃，到去年10、11月份席卷全国的订单萧条，到春节前后的生产突增，到第一季度的整体飘红，无不如此。

 

      我们是身处旋风口附近的人。

 

      如果真的如此，二季度末时，谜底应该能够揭晓。

 

      在此之前，无论是楼市回暖，还是车市火爆，或者工业增长的同时用电量下降，都是八卦阵里的迷雾...